Can climate-tracking communities enrich the productivity and diversity of climate-lagging remnants?

Predicting how ecological communities will respond to climate change is one of the most pressing challenges in ecology. This question is especially urgent for soil specialists with limited dispersal ability, such as the rare and diverse plant communities of California’s serpentine grasslands. Serpentine populations face a dual challenge: either remain in place in “climate-lagging” communities, persisting under hotter and drier conditions while competing with newly arriving species, or overcome barriers to dispersal and competition from established residents shift into more favorable habitats as “climate-tracking” populations. This project investigates how serpentine communities may respond to these challenges using experimental mesocosms of serpentine grassland communities collected across California. By simulating projected climate outcomes at both local scales (microclimatic variation within a site) and regional scales (across northern and southern serpentine ranges) and measuring shifts in diversity, composition, productivity, and climatic niche, I ask how California serpentine communities respond to warming, drying, and novel species interactions. This experiment will provide new insights into the resilience and vulnerability of serpentine ecosystems under climate change. Beyond advancing our understanding of community responses, the results have direct conservation implications, including when interventions like managed relocation may help preserve serpentine biodiversity and when they might pose unintended risks.